The team is led by the University of California San Diego (UCSD), UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina State University (NCSU) and RTI International. The team’s main areas of interest have been in capacity building at state level, and coordinated modeling across North American FABLE teams as well as key export regions for US agriculture and forest products.
As a net exporter of food, the US plays a significant role in global food production, producing large quantities of corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, and poultry. However, agriculture in the US is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 11.2% in 2020. Additionally, the US has moderate to high levels of crop variety concentration, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and trade issues, which can lead to food availability problems for its major trade partners.
Healthier diets following official government agency guidelines could have important implications for agricultural land use and management trends, offering a range of environmental benefits in addition to improving health outcomes. Large scale investments in reforestation/afforestation could be possible without substantial sacrifices to crop production if tree planting investments are concentrated on pasturelands and marginally productive croplands—and in particular, alongside dietary preference changes.
Baker, J. S. Van Houtven, G., Phelan, J., Latta, G., Clark, C., Austin, K., Sodiya, O., Ohrel, S., Buckley, J., Gentile, L., Martinich, J. (2023). Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario. Forest Policy and Economics. 147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898.
Wu, G.C., Baker, J.S., Wade, C.M. et al. Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States. Sustain Sci 18, 539–556 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w.
Daigneault, A., Baker, J. S., Guo, J., Lauri, P., Favero, A., Forsell, N., Johnston, C., Ohrel, S., Sohngen, B. L. (2022). The future of the forest carbon sink depends on markets, management, and carbon policy. Global Environmental Change. 76. 102582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102582.
Wade, C. M., Baker, J. S., Jones, J., Austin, K., Cai, Y., Bean, A., Latta, G., Ohrel, S., Ragnauth, S., Creason, J., McCarl, B. (2022). Projecting the impact of socioeconomic and policy factors on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration potential in U.S. forestry and agriculture. Journal of Forest Economics. 37(1): 127-161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000545.
FABLE (2020). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), Laxenburg and Paris. 10.22022/ESM/12-2020.16896.US chapter.
FABLE (2019). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. 2019 Report of the FABLE Consortium. Laxenburg and Paris: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). Pathway for the United States.