Meet the FABLE US team

The team is led by the University of California San Diego (UCSD), UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina State University (NCSU) and RTI International. The team’s main areas of interest have been in capacity building at state level, and coordinated modeling across North American FABLE teams as well as key export regions for US agriculture and forest products.

Models used by the team: GLOBIOM and the FABLE Calculator.

Contact focal point

Transforming food and land-use systems in the United States

One of the largest countries in the world, the United States of America is also the third most populous country. The variety of different landscapes and climates between Alaska, Hawaii, and the contiguous US makes it one of the most biodiverse countries in the world. The numerous American national and federally managed parks are notably dedicated to preserving the country’s rich environment; however, biodiversity is still threatened by habitat loss and degradation.

As a net exporter of food, the US plays a significant role in global food production, producing large quantities of corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, and poultry. However, agriculture in the US is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 11.2% in 2020. Additionally, the US has moderate to high levels of crop variety concentration, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and trade issues, which can lead to food availability problems for its major trade partners.

The US diet is high in fat and sugar, and contributes to high rates of overweight and obesity (71% of adults are overweight). High body-mass index is the second most important factor driving the most death and disability combined in the US, where 20% of all deaths are attributable to dietary risks.

Healthier diets following official government agency guidelines could have important implications for agricultural land use and management trends, offering a range of environmental benefits in addition to improving health outcomes. Large scale investments in reforestation/afforestation could be possible without substantial sacrifices to crop production if tree planting investments are concentrated on pasturelands and marginally productive croplands—and in particular, alongside dietary preference changes.

Key national objectives and targets

• The United States has committed to reduce net GHG emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels in 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
• Reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030.
• Conserve 30% of lands and waters by 2030.
• Increase agricultural productivity by 40%, reduce food waste by 50%, reduce nutrient loss to runoff by 30%, reduce carbon emissions, and increase biofuel and biomass production.
• Cut the environmental footprint of U.S. agriculture in half by 2050.

Publications

• Baker, J. S. Van Houtven, G., Phelan, J., Latta, G., Clark, C., Austin, K., Sodiya, O., Ohrel, S., Buckley, J., Gentile, L., Martinich, J. (2023). Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario. Forest Policy and Economics. 147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898.

• Wu, G.C., Baker, J.S., Wade, C.M. et al. Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States. Sustain Sci 18, 539–556 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w.

• Daigneault, A., Baker, J. S., Guo, J., Lauri, P., Favero, A., Forsell, N., Johnston, C., Ohrel, S., Sohngen, B. L. (2022). The future of the forest carbon sink depends on markets, management, and carbon policy. Global Environmental Change. 76. 102582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102582.

• Wade, C. M., Baker, J. S., Jones, J., Austin, K., Cai, Y., Bean, A., Latta, G., Ohrel, S., Ragnauth, S., Creason, J., McCarl, B. (2022). Projecting the impact of socioeconomic and policy factors on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration potential in U.S. forestry and agriculture. Journal of Forest Economics. 37(1): 127-161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000545.

• SDSN 2020. Zero Carbon Action Plan. New York: Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). The chapter “Accelerating Sustainable Land Use Practices in the U.S.”.

• FABLE (2020). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), Laxenburg and Paris. 10.22022/ESM/12-2020.16896. US chapter.
• FABLE (2019). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. 2019 Report of the FABLE Consortium. Laxenburg and Paris: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). Pathway for the United States.



Recent activities

• Podcast Duke university: E109: The FABLE of International Sustainable Development.
• Spotlight presentation: America's Zero Carbon Action Plan.