FABLE Targets

Long-term targets are necessary to ensure that the needs of present and future generations are balanced. FABLE supports the design of national targets that meet international climate and biodiversity commitments, while ensuring domestic food security and a viable land use sector.

To ensure that the sum of FABLE pathways meets sustainable development objectives, Consortium members need to quantify global benchmarks that they aim to achieve as a group.

FABLE Global Targets proposed for the 2023 Scenathon:


Land and Biodiversity

  • By 2030 or before, halt the loss of Land where Natural Processes Predominate (LNPP). By 2050, a 15% increase in the extent of LNPP relative to 2020.
  • By 2030, at least 30% of terrestrial areas are inside protected areas or other effective area-based conservation measures.
  • By 2030, at least 50% of cropland is under agroecological practices.
  • Halt deforestation by 2030.

Greenhouse gas emissions from AFOLU

  • Reduce agricultural methane (CH4) emissions by at least 10.3 Mt CH4 from 2020 levels by 2030 and 28.2 Mt CH4 in 2050.
  • CO2 emissions from AFOLU (excl. Forest management) < -1.3Gt CO2 by 2050.
  • Cumulative CO2 emissions from AFOLU 2020-2050: >= 40 Gt CO2.
  • Max. 4 GtCO2e yr-1 by 2050 for global agriculture emissions.

Food security

  • Average daily kcal consumption per capita is higher than the minimum requirement (MDER) in all countries by at least 10% and limited to 50% in all countries by 2030 onward.
  • Less than 5% of the population is undernourished and less than 5% of the population is obese by 2030.

Freshwater

  • Consumptive blue water use for irrigation < 2,453 km3 yr-1.

Nitrogen release from agriculture within environmental limits

  • N use < 69 Tg N yr-1 total Industrial and agricultural biological fixation (52-113 Tg N yr-1) by 2050.

Phosphorus release from agriculture within environmental limits.

  • < 16 Tg P per year from fertilizers to erodible soils (6.2-17 Tg P per year) by 2050.

Four principles to guide our selection of global targets:

1. Use as few global targets as necessary. A full systems analysis of the FABLE dimensions would allow for a comprehensive assessment of synergies and trade-offs between measures reaching multiple targets simultaneously. In the spirit of ensuring efficiency of policies, the aim of the analysis is to cover major trade-offs and account for synergies in land-use and food systems. A balance between efficiency and effectiveness must be struck in the design of Scenathons aiming to achieve joint targets.

2. Focus on mid-century targets. Emphasis is placed on long-term strategies which enable the transformation towards sustainable land-use and food systems. Hence, global targets are preferably framed for 2050. When appropriate, internationally agreed policy targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, can provide intermediate benchmarks. This also reflects the thinking for long-term climate strategies, as envisioned under the Paris Agreement (Article 4.19)

3. Use science-based targets that have been politically agreed, when possible. Targets for FABLE analysis must be supported by the latest science.

4. Ensure that targets are applicable at local, national, and global levels. While FABLE targets are set at the global scale, it is important that these targets are framed in such a way that they can be translated into measures, which are relevant at national and local scales. The target setting needs to enable a dialogue between global ambition and action taken individually by country teams.


Discover how FABLE pathways have achieved or missed global targets in various Scenathons, by exploring our interactive Scenathon dashboard.