Meet the FABLE China team
The team is led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and Zhejiang University (ZJU). CAS is a key driver of China's scientific and technological advancement, bringing together top scientists and engineers from around the world to solve both theoretical and applied problems using world-class scientific and management approaches. ZJU is one of China’s leading higher education institutions, as well as one of its oldest; its roots can be traced back to 1897. ZJU has a Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) aims to exert the superiority of research in agricultural and rural modernization.
The team’s main areas of interest are in matching the modeled results with historical changes, linking the model to nutrient management which enhances the prediction of demand for nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, and related environmental pollution.
Following the announcement of China’s ambitious pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the FABLE China team, in partnership with the Food and Land Use Coalition Platform in China, is working to develop a long term pathway specifically focused on decarbonizing China’s land sector.
Models used by the team: GLOBIOM, MAgPIE and the FABLE Calculator.
Zhaohai Bai
Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CARR, IGDB, CAS)
Xinpeng Jin
Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CARR, IGDB, CAS)
Hao Zhao
Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CARR, IGDB, CAS)
Jinfeng Chang
College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
Xiaoxi Wang
China Academy for Rural Development and Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Zhejiang University.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Transforming food and land-use systems in China
China, the world's most populous country and second-largest economy, possesses a wide variety of ecosystems and landscapes. Its land area comprises 41% grassland, 13% cropland, 22% forest, less than 1% urban, and 23% other natural land. Most of its agricultural land is situated in Northern China and the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, while forests and other natural land are mainly found in the northeast and southwest regions. Approximately 75% of China's cultivated land is used for food crops, with rice, maize, and wheat accounting for over 90% of the country's total food production.
In recent decades, China has prioritized its food security, leading to excessive use of groundwater, fertilizers, pesticides, and imported feed products. This has contributed to air and water pollution, global land use change, and rising domestic water scarcity. China’s demand for meat and dairy products is rising rapidly, surpassing domestic production by a significant margin. Furthermore, China’s international demand for soft commodities exacerbates deforestation and other environmental harms in major agricultural and forestry commodity exporters.
The main threats to biodiversity are habitat destruction and direct exploitation of wild flora and fauna. The monopoly of forest plantations in China has led to low pest resistance of forests, and 90% of grasslands have been degraded by varying degrees. As a response, the government has established a broad system of pro-environment policies under the umbrella of “Ecological Civilization”, which has had far-reaching and mainly positive impacts on land use and its ecological implications.
Moreover, China needs to take measures to improve the productivity of crop and livestock production without increasing inputs per unit. These involve enhanced agricultural infrastructure for low-yield fields, high-yielding breeds, and high-water- and nutrient-use efficiency breeds, as well as precision crop and livestock farming. By increasing land productivity and reducing cropland expansion, they can bring significant advantages to climate, biodiversity and food security.
Key national objectives and targets
- In its latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. The government has set a goal of reducing carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP) by 65% by 2030 from 2005 levels.
- China has set a target to protect 30% of its land and freshwater ecosystems by 2030.
- China is expected to make decisive progress in comprehensive rural revitalization, and generally achieve agricultural and rural modernization by 2035.
Publications
- Yue Zhao, Zhaohai Bai, Ling Liu, Xiangwen Fan, Lin Ma, Impacts of subsidy for export of pig to domestic market on the spatial distribution of pig production and related nitrogen losses in China, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 907, 2024, 167990, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167990.
- Wang, X., Xu, M., Lin, B. et al. Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security. Sustain Sci 18, 407–420 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01189-w.
- Zhao, H., Chang, J., Havlík, P. et al. China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment. Nat Sustain 4, 1042–1051 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6.
- Jin, X., Bai, Z., Oenema, O., et al. (2020). Spatial Planning Needed to Drastically Reduce Nitrogen and Phosphorus Surpluses in China's Agriculture. Environmental Science & Technology. 10.1021/acs.est.0c00781.
- Bai, Z., Schmidt-Traub, G., Xu, J., et al. (2020). A food system revolution for China in the post-pandemic world. Resources, Environment and Sustainability, Volume 2. 100013. ISSN 2666-9161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2020.100013.
- Liu, Z., Ying, H., Chen, M. et al. Optimization of China’s maize and soy production can ensure feed sufficiency at lower nitrogen and carbon footprints. Nat Food 2, 426–433 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00300-1.
- FABLE (2020). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), Laxenburg and Paris. 10.22022/ESM/12-2020.16896. China chapter.
- FABLE (2019). Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems. 2019 Report of the FABLE Consortium. Laxenburg and Paris: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN). Pathway for China.