Meet the FABLE Chile team

The team is led by the Forestry Institute of Chile (INFOR). INFOR is a forestry research center that belongs to the Ministry of Agriculture. INFOR aims to create value for the Chilean forest sector, and it has a close relationship with the industry, environmental NGOs, academia and policy makers.

Models used: FABLE Calculator.




Transforming food and land-use systems in Chile

Chile is an export-oriented country that, despite its small agricultural area (most of the country is desert, mountains and cold steppe), produces a significant share of the global consumption of several fruits. It ranks as the second-largest producer of cherries, fourth in plums, eighth in grapes and peaches, tenth in apples, and eleventh in avocados. Chile is also a major wine producer (7th globally) and plays an important role in the production of salmon (second only to Norway) and forest products, ranking tenth in wood-pulp production, with some Chilean companies among the largest timber exporters worldwide.

While Chile is not relevant in terms of local consumption, as its population of about 19 million people represents less than 0,3% of the global population, it is relevant in terms of the total agro-forestry production, most of which is consumed abroad.

Agriculture and forestry contribute nearly 4.5% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), and nearly 1,5 million people work in these activities (direct workers), one-third of which corresponds to seasonal migrant-workers (mostly in the harvesting season).

Chile faces numerous food system challenges. One of these relates to the high price of many agricultural products, which creates problems in terms of affordability and maintaining healthy diets. For many people eating ultra-processed food is much more convenient than buying lettuce or tomatoes. Because of this, Chile has one the highest rates of obesity in Latin America.

Over the past four decades, the forestry sector has grown significantly in the country, largely based on tree crops, mainly eucalyptus and pine plantations. Some of these plantations have been located on agricultural lands, wetlands and native forests, with significant social and environmental impacts. Spillover effects of this process concerning agriculture (production and prices), water availability, carbon balance, and biodiversity have not been adequately studied.

Climate change has reduced precipitation and intensified heatwaves in the central zone of the country, where most of these productive activities are concentrated, making climate change an important factor shaping agro-forestry production. At the same time, the potential of native forests as providers of ecosystem services, including timber production, is also a key consideration.


Key national objectives and targets

Chile's key national climate objectives, anchored in the 2022 Framework Law on Climate Change, aim for carbon neutrality and climate resilience by 2050. Major goals include peaking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2025, reaching a 95 MtCO2eq level by 2030, sourcing 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030, and phasing out coal-fired power plants by 2040.

Other key national objectives include:

  • Emission Reductions: A 2020–2030 cumulative GHG budget of 1,100 MtCO2eq and a 25% reduction in black carbon by 2030 compared to 2016 levels.

  • Transportation Electrification: 100% of new urban buses and taxis to be zero-emission by 2040.

  • Sectoral Mitigation: Reduce emissions from industry and mining by 70% by 2050.

  • Climate Resilience & Adaptation: Implement Regional Climate Action Plans in all 16 regions by 2026 and enhance water risk monitoring.

  • Green Hydrogen: Develop green hydrogen to account for 20% of the fuel matrix by 2040.

  • Nature-Based Solutions: Reforestation of 100,000 hectares, focus on native forests, and protection of wetlands.

  • Restoration and Conservation: Restore 1 million hectares by 2030, with a focus on native forest recovery, biodiversity protection, and ecosystem resilience, particularly in the Mediterranean Ecoregion.

  • Sustainable Management and Carbon Storage: Promote sustainable forest management, reduce degradation, and enhance carbon sequestration in forests and wetlands to reach national greenhouse gas reduction targets (e.g., maximum emissions peak by 2025).

  • Fire Prevention and Control: Implement stronger preventive management against forest fires, a critical vulnerability in Chile's changing climate.

  • Carbon Market Integration: Develop the 'Platform for Generation and Trading of Carbon Credits in the Chilean Forestry Sector' (managed by CONAF) to incentivize private investment in forest protection.

  • Addressing Wood Consumption: Promote sustainable firewood certification to curb degradation caused by firewood use for heating.

  • Policy Coherence: Align the Forestry Policy 2015-2035 with the Framework Law on Climate Change to ensure sustainable land management and climate-resilient landscapes.


    Research interests in food and land-use

    We are interested in including forestry in the FABLE modelling work, as a sector that produces multiple goods and services (biodiversity is just one of them). Currently, forests are only considered as a “GIS layer” (a land-use) about which crops, or stockbreeding can get expanded, with consequences in terms of carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. However, forestry includes aspects like timber harvesting (silvicultural methods), wildfires/pests and tree regeneration that can have a huge influence on the land and food systems.


    Publications

  • Reyes, R., 2021. Promotores socioeconómicos de la pérdida y degradación del bosque nativo en Chile. Santiago de Chile, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). doi.org/10.4060/cb0839es
  • Zerriffi, H., Reyes, R., Maloney, A., 2023. Pathways to sustainable land use and food systems in Canada. Sustain Sci, 18, 389–406. DOI 10.1007/s11625-022-01213-z
  • Mosnier, A., et al., 2023. How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative. Sustain Sci 18, 335–345. DOI 10.1007/s11625-022-01227-7
  • Mosnier, A., et al., 2023. A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 045001. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acc044
  • Guta, D., Reyes, R., Zerriffi, H., Gergel, S., 2024. Residential heating, fuelwood demand and tree species: implications for native forests in the South of Chile. Energy for Sustainable Development 78, 101372. DOI 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101372
  • Martínez, A., Reyes, R., Nelson, H., 2024. Linking Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts with Adaptation: insights from landowners in Southern Chile. Trees, Forests and People 16, 100557. DOI 10.1016/j.tfp.2024.100557
  • Aguilera, F., Reyes, R., Schueftan, A., Zerriffi, H., Sanhueza, R., 2024. Understanding the role of people's preferences and perceptions in the analysis of residential energy transition: A metanalysis. Energy for Sustainable Development 82, 101534. DOI 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101534